Here is the deal:
Biomass is only available this year from contract grows.
Prices for cbd crude are almost double where they were 2 years ago if its clean and free from fines, waxes, fats etc.
International commerce has helped move the needle immensely.
It appears that depending on network to move product, a decent sized lab (over 800kgs weekly production) could offer good priced crude as long as they can produce a kg of crude sub $60 and make a decent net profit…
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Information spreads no matter how authoritarian your desired overlord is.
The nature of capitalism is fluctuation due to supply and demand, without government attempting to fix the market.
Word got out you could make money growing hemp, which created more supply than demand, driving prices down.
Most people couldn’t make it.
Now supply is short of the demand and prices have risen dramatically in the hemp CBD space.
I worked with multiple farmers to secure up front purchases of their fall crops last winter/spring, and they are thrilled that hemp made them money this year
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I’m sure everyone is looking forward to seeing prices increase and that starts at the farmers. Test the biomass so you don’t get ripped off in the meantime. Lots of 5% and lower.
Good luck out there.
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agreed crude prices have increased, but isolate prices have not moved as much, creating an imbalance in the supply chain.
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Agreed, i think a good amount of crude mfg went under making available good crude harder to find is whats driving the bus. Isolate is about to catch up. After all, youve got to have one to make the other.
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hop latent viroid
No this is more an economic situation - although that is looming overhead
My partner and I liquidated our lab mid-2022, I understand that crude is a commodity but every cheap motherfucker we talked to wanted high quality crude for forty bucks a kilogram, because some other dumbass was selling it that cheap. When we asked why they wanted our crude for that price instead of buying their crude for that price, the answer was ALWAYS something along the lines of “well their crude is full of fats and sugars and gets piss poor yields from crude to disty to iso”
So these buyers need to make a choice, do you want it cheap or do you want it good, because you can’t have it both ways.
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Most clients want the cheapest product that will just barely clear them legally and liability wise and that’s all that matters
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And I can certainly recognize that, but when talking about inputs it’s likely penny wise pound foolish behavior. If you have to do more preprocessing to remove fats, multiple distillation runs to clean up enough, more downtime and labor for cleaning the crap out of your distillation equipment after it slows to a crawl, more recrystallization runs to get better looking color and COA’s, all of that costs even more labor which isn’t cheap either
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And then the real question is are you actually going to sell it. There are warehousing sitting full of unsold, perfectly good quality distillate right now and no customers. “If you build it, they will come” – sorry, that has ceased to apply. I think the CBD fever has broke and people realizing that all these bougie products are worthless.
Unsold at a high advertised price or unsold at any price?
Crude prices trending up in the last 6 months and some people (like OP) worrying about sourcing inputs suggests to me that there’s still some demand for those inputs because they can make some money on their outputs
That’s not mutually exclusive with people asking nonsensical high prices for average quality goods, this is true with cannabis extracts just the same as other goods you’ll see on Craigslist, FB marketplace, flea markets, garage sales and many other marketplaces. Maybe the seller will accept an offer that’s a reasonable compromise, or maybe they believe those commodities are going back up to 2018 levels and it’ll continue collecting dust.
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It’s true, for the moment, that prices are going up a little bit. I think this will be temporary.
However, I believe the demand for CBD is finite and that we are actually close to the limit at this very moment (in the US at least). So when we hit that point, we’re going to run into problems. Yes, you can always sell for “any price” – you sell a liter for a penny, sure, someone will pick it up. But nobody, no matter how large, can sell a liter for a penny and make a profit. So it’s entirely possible that low demand will put things at a point where it becomes impossible for people to produce at a positive margin. I think this may be sooner than people realize.
I, by the way, talk to people every day and I tell them membranes can cut their price per gram dramatically. They tell me “we don’t care about margins, we just need to get running quick, things will bounce back to 2018 prices any day now” – I think these people are completely delusional.
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The demand for cbd is fuck all. The demand for d9 and d8 and all the conversions is the only reason we still need cbd. As long as you can make d9 from cbd it will never die. But yes I think we are about to see a massive shift of economics when it comes to hemp in the next 2-3 months
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I’m still convinced they’re going to crack down on this and crack down on it hard with mass arrests. They’re just getting the whole operation buttoned up and flawless before launching. I know i’ve being saying this for years and it hasn’t happened yet, but I’m not giving up. Tell you what, two more years and i’ll admit I was wrong.
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If the states stop producing D9 from hemp and get arrested then we will buy all of your cbd and convert it ourselves. The price will go up forever. If you are not making CBD sales in US try EU because the demand has never been higher.
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Bc is cracking down, it’s because the CBD comes into a unregulated market and get converted into a regulated product literally under the Constables noses. and so province to province transport is a thing of the past. They are hitting labs hard for this same reason you guys are seeing busts of the sellers.
It would be an interesting choice to go after conversion labs so high up in the chain at this point when they’ve also basically left the barn door open and the same people who were selling the products of those conversions (D8/D9 ratio and legal loopholes aside) are also just selling straight up cannabis as “THCa Hemp”. But I do also have a hard time believing the situation as it is now will stand. I just know that I don’t have the guts to risk my living by earning my money that way, but I’m glad that some of the people who do also seem to have their heads on straight…
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Exactly.
I miss watching my employer in 2018 and early 2019 tantalize investors, while knowing deep in their hearts that CBD is boring and way over-valued, then watch the price drop faster than a cannabis stock, and then have a fire sale on all the new lab equipment a year or two later (sometimes without ever using the equipment) and blame everything on the COVID-19 lockdowns.
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