Speculating about a medical state is futile.
Once they drop the bomb that less than 10% of the existing operators will qualify for the limited licensing is when the true carnage will begin
Imagine spending all this money in a med state for the hope and a dream of getting a license one day.
oklahoma this harvest season is going to be brutal. look at the numbers, the state has a population of 4 million. it’s only medical this season, and so far about 10% of the population has a med card. so a consumer market of about 400,000. not bad. but the outdoor grows i’m seeing rival some hemp farms. they are massive. low quality, hermed out, machine trimmed outdoor grown in large part by people with little to no experience. this is going to force all cannabis prices in the OK market lower. but some quality categories more than others. i think that the exotic indoor guys out there with strong branding like cookies won’t see much of a price shift. if any at all maybe 10-15% drop. for the green house, mids category, huge drop. there’s just so much weed in this category as well, 30-40% drop. and i know there is amazing outdoor growers, 100%, but oklahoma isn’t exactly the most ideal climate to grow the plant. plus all the herms you miss walking a field with 20,000 plants or more… if you have grown on this level you understand. it’s going to be fucked, i wouldn’t be surprised if we see $50-100 dollar pounds in some quality categories and a lot of the lower end shit not selling at all. the better quality outs from farms with good sales teams, my guess is the $200-300 range. another factor to keep in mind is that in order to grow cannabis at the scale of some of these bigger outdoor farms you have to have a career large scale farmer involved. and farmers used to farming traditional crops, timothy, corn or triticale, things like this, are used to making as little as $1,000 an acre. if you tell him “hey jim, i can only sell this pound for $50 dollars” in his mind $50 dollars for a pound of anything he grows is mind blowing. depending on your planting density, $50 a pound gets you in the $50,000 an acre range. this is mind blowing to a big ag farmer. these large scale farmers not used to growing a crop this valuable will almost always be willing to drop the price faster vs a grower with a strictly marijuana background. i think this might be a factor we can see sub $100 dollar lbs. a lot of this will make its way out of state but it’s basically the exact same situation in the traditional market. boof gets returned or moves so slowly that the margin for loss grows so high it makes it not worth it. most traditional guys won’t even clog their lines with shitty outs anymore. i feel bad for the farmers and the guys who are working these grows, it’s hard work and a lot of them will unfortunately hit a loss this year.
There’s still so much here from last yr and even the yr before cause people held out thinking they’d get a better ticket for it and now its basically worthless. The herd will get thinner this yr
this breaks my heart man. there’s a story, dreams, a group of growers behind every pound someone rejects. people fail to associate the work that goes into farming. i get it, this is the market and consumer quality demands evolving. but there’s good hard working people behind those turkey bags people so easily toss aside
Oh i know, have lots of friends who have stopped, left, gone bankrupt etc. As much as it sucks its also kinda one of those things thats happened some what slowly over the yrs with everyone getting worse than the last. The writing had been on the wall for awhile now so with as much sympathy i have for all the people, you gotta learn to pivot or know when to throw in the towel, can’t let a dream lead you down a road that leads to being broke.
Banker Bob told me many eye opening life truisms, one of the most shocking was most small business owners work for less than minimum wage.
I know many who pay themselves min wage and live thru the company but if you can make payroll and pay yourself a salary your well ahead of the game.
After the fattening comes slaughter.