Large Scale Cannabis Plant Insight

I wanted to share my experience on how large ($100M+) process plants get the green light to proceed and ultimately become real projects. Steps 1 to 6 are already well underway in the cannabis market by the truly big players like Bayer, ADM, Cargill, Pepsi, Nestle, Phillip Morris, etc.

Step 1) Market research, supply chains and draft business plans are developed. This is overseen at Exec VP level at places like Shell, Chevron, Cargill, Pepsi, etc. At smaller places ownership and top leadership direct.

Step 2) Scientist and labs are utilized to develop the chemistry and SOP. Sometimes patents are purchased, or complete SOP packages purchased for big bucks. This could be done in house or not.

Step 3) Big firms like ADM, Shell and Cargill will contract with a firm like Process Engineering Associates to develop a detailed process plan, scale the SOP and simulate. They will also determine real costs, not just the BS ones used in the business plan. This is where plans go to die.

Step 4) Now that all the science, costs, markets and other real numbers have been gathered the business plan will be fleshed out in detail.

Step 5) The specific plan will be vetted against other plans. The best plans will be selected to get further vetting and approvals. Boards and ownership will determine if the investment is sound an inline with the broader strategy. Deals will be made to lock up supply chains.

Step 6) Large firms like Haliburton, Fluor Daniel and so on are then contracted as vendors to make the build plans (mechanical, electrical, etc.). Sometimes companies can buy complete construction plans for huge sums of money. Supply chains will also be locked up.

Step 7) Projects may get turned over to large construction firms or the same firms that did the plans to work as the Prime Contractors. They then sub out the work to smaller contractors.

Step 8) Mostly subcontractors will run these plants. Very few will be actual employees of the company funding the project. If you are an actual employee of ADM for example, you are likely in an oversight position representing your companies interest and holding vendors accountable.

Also note that a lot of times these operations are ran as subsidiaries to mitigate risk and exposure.

All of this is also highly iterative. As assumptions are actualized and plans change figures will constantly be checked and rechecked, including market assumptions.

The only way to compete against these behemoths in my view is to find ways to make their size irrelevant. Specialization, having a better product, finding ways to do it cheaper, innovating, etc. are how you compete.

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Phillip Morris maintained a secured greenhouse at their Richmond VA facility off the side of I-95 between Colonial Heights and Richmond. It’s been there for over a decade. I worked for another large corporation nearby, and contractors to our site swore up and down that they were growing cannabis in there. Some even reported seeing premade packaging for cannabis products. It could all be BS and urban legend of course.

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It’s about efficiency. The refinery game isn’t really about size.

Economies of scale and diseconomies of scale, need to account for both.

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Cool read. “This is where plans go to die.” I felt that.

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Agreed, big guys have the ability to compete with their economies of scale. But that is not the only way to win market share is all I was trying to articulate. We just have to be nimble and smarter. Kind of like gorilla warfare.

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Throwing 100’a of millions of dollars at a facility when market is in infancy is not smart. Only 28,000 acres of hemp @15% CBD fulfills the entire 2.6 billion dollar cbd market.

It’s one of the reasons some of my guys have not switched lines yet.

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I think this is an extremely insightful piece of data. Some I imagine are asking how to create more demand.

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Yeah we grew around 300,000 acres of hemp this year :joy:

Well as saturation and supply goes down up the market will open up as it becomes accessible to new people. Essentially the market will grow itself utilizing these growing pains.

Stack it high, sell it cheap.

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It realy amazes me that the pricing is lowering so slow I would have thought real crashing by now
Let s hope for the best

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Well ina market cycle you have multiple frequency’s that make up that cycle. Wholesale sellers might be saturated but what about saturation of GOOD formulated retail products? Two totally different markets.

The retail prices didn’t drop because of the lack of education in the consumer base. They will and I’ve seen it slowly drop. It will drop slow at first and then by the end it will be super quick.

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I’ve been telling everyone hemp is a race to the bottom for over a year. As the market consolidates these behemoths have the ability to bleed money from their operations, essentially getting a tax write-off, until the economy catches up to their scale.

Edited to clarify my response was in regard to hemp.

Nobody is getting tax write offs in the cannabis space unless you say your a essential oil company :wink::rofl:

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Most of the replies were in regard to hemp even though the topic was cannabis. I should have clarified. :man_shrugging:t3:

Hemp and cannabis are the same thing. Only the federal law separates them.

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yea, i have no clue where to buy good edibles like in the screen shot below shown on the Netflix documentary Rotten. Somebody starts selling those here in TN the’re going to do just fine. I suppose first you have to have the supply chain of great terpines and isolates.

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Federal law, federal tax write-off? At minimum if they are following the outline of the original post they can call it a capital loss and offset gains from another division/subsidiary…

All businesses can benefit from very friendly depreciation schedules and R&D credits.

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IRC - section 41

You don’t get access to this if you are registered as a weed company. Lol

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Thats funny. I great up in Richmond and remember the same stories

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Really? That is bullshit. I had no idea.