Current State and Future of CBD Concentrates

[CO_Chromatography]

Happy Sunday Everyone,

I wanted to create a thread today to talk with you all about the current state of concentrates as well as the upcoming future.

For starters, from your own experience what do your customers seem to want more at the moment, Isolate, crude, T-free crude, Distillate, T-Free Distillate etc.?

What kind of prices are you seeing for the various types of concentrates?

Do you think that the market is starting to bottom out or do you think we still have a long way too go?

Looking forward, I was also curious as to what you guys could see for this industry as we progress say one year, two years, and five years into the future.

What do you think that the FDA will do regarding CBD isolate and CBD products in general, how will that drive the market?

I have been hearing all kinds of things, Crude is the future and distillate is dying off, T-free is the future because isolate will be made into a drug, Distillate will always hold a major share because it is a more “controlled” product always having similar potency etc.

Where do you guys see the prices of these extracts going in the one, two and five year timelines?

Thanks for all of your thoughts and opinions, I think this can be a very useful thread for the community.

PS: Let’s be realistic and honest but please try to avoid the total doom and gloom vibes that were coming in these kinds of threads pre-harvest.

Cheers,
0Kyle

[Sirsmokesalot]

Well if you price by the basic supply and demand rule, prices will continue to drop as more supply comes in. The trick for processors that I feel is vastly overlooked isn’t getting more money for your oil, but making oil as cheap as you can. About a year ago I was making distillate for around 30 cents a gram so costs won’t be an issue, but scaling up to where you can make enough oil at 30 cents a gram and staying relevent is. Where it gets difficult is when big money comes into play, as it already has. Those with big money will play the long game. If prices drop to say, 30 cents a gram for isolate, the small guy needs at least 30 cents a gram just to break even and continuous profit is important to growing your company. Big money can come in, sell it at the same prices as you and afford to take a loss. Ex, with multiple millions backing them, they can sell it at a loss for a long time. When they sell it for cheaper than anyone else can produce it at, a lot of companies will drop out. When they drop out, big business will have more market control which will allow them to raise the prices if they so desire. In five years, I think your best bet would have been to sell your company and move to another industry. I’ve been saying this for years. Most don’t want to accept it because they love doing this but if you love money more, you’ll think about an exit strategy. Just my thoughts, I could be completely wrong but I think this is the most realistic outcome.

A good example is alcohol and the effects of prohibition/ending prohibition. A lot of small time alcohol producers were making a fat living while it was illegal. As it became legal, very few made it to the big leagues and decades later, no one is home brewing alcohol for profit while the legal market is insanely competitive and hard to make your way in. I expect all cannabis to be remarkably similar. There comes an exception with craft breweries which have become more popular over recent years but even then, they get bought out by big breweries if they’re successful enough and I imagine even the craft brew industry will be vastly more competitive in the next 5 years.

Most make the argument that big money will produce crap quality but I think that they’ll have enough research to understand that isn’t the way to go and big money will also be producing quality extracts and flower because that’s what people want. Right now there’s a giant mids market but when quality flower becomes as cheap as mids are now, the mids market will drop off and quality will be the only standard.

Again I could be completely wrong, but that’s what I think is going to happen

[Roguelab]

In the future product wise a t free crude will hold it s ground
It s the only product that has all the good in it
As for isolate it s not bad but doesn t bring anything special to the table
As for flower top shelf is always gooing to be needed since some folks like to smoke it
Most cbd products will be produced by whales in a few years time

Not so for thc where the amount of strains and labor intense products will
Be harder to mass produce

The cbd market is close to bottoming out and the hype off cbd. Is dying wich
Can be changed fairly fast if science
Can find proof that it has more benifits for a healthy life than known now
Making it. A supplement of day to day use

And then there are the other cannabinoids and there effects wich might save the day
Cbn Sleep???
Thcv. Dieet. ???
And who knows wich one might get hyped in the near future