When will the Hemp/CBD Market Stabilize?

Hi everyone,

I wanted to hear some of your guys opinions on when you think the CBD/Hemp market will stabilize.

Right now we are still lin a pretty gnarly oversupply (in my opinion) and prices are almost certainly going to be going down more.

Right now I’m seeing…
Biomass: $4-6/Lb
Crude: $250-350/Kg
Distillate: $750-1000/Kg
Broad spectrum (compliant): $1500-1800/Kg
T-free Broad spec: $1800-2000/Kg

But I’d love to hear some predictions on if prices will continue to drop, and for how long.

I have investors telling me they think it’s almost bottoming out and are looking to buy up a bunch of crude for “dirt cheap” at 250$/Kg…:

My concern is that the “bottom” is still 6-12 more months out and the price war really begins once companies start going out of business and liquidating their stock below costs… which forces more companies out of business, which will lead to them also selling their inventory below costs, etc. etc.

Also, I understand that in say 10-20 years prices will likely be significantly lower due to economies of scale, I’d be looking for a 6-months too 5 years prediction, what will this market look like and how low will it go?

Thanks for your insights, are we close or are we super far off?


I think the FDA controls everything right now. The bottom comes when they finally issue clear guidance about the legality of all cbd products, and then large companies are comfortable enough to enter the cbd market, therefore increasing demand and prices.



Entering despair


lots of despair. i’m thankful it happened so quickly. make the oil worthless, it’s better for the public. they’ll be able to get the oil without breaking the bank.

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How long would you predict the despair phase to last?

My hope was we were in a bear trap and maybe we are.

Either way, I think it is at least a year yet for the market to stabilize.

I am curious if any farmer can make money at $8lb biomass and will they be planting this year?


I know it’s obviously not apples to apples but the price of wheat is around 0.07$/lb so by comparison hemp is still a “cash cow” but realistically there is a LOT more work that goes into farming/harvesting/drying hemp than there is for wheat.

I’m not a farmer so I cannot attest to this, it’s my belief that the bottom of the market is just above the price of production for hemp farmers (similar to wheat) and that will ripple up the supply chain.


we need full puke it out sell capitulation before a bottom. we’re not even close yet.


So where do you see the bottom being then, and when do you see us getting there?

distillate prices below cost of production; more bankruptcies, lower (much) unsold supply


So you’re thinking distillate for $500? Or do you think less?

I’m not in the extraction game so it’s hard for me to estimate cost from Biomass—>crude—>distillate

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I don’t know that answer either. many guys get product for free on split deals, if they’re smart they’re currently selling at the best price offered in the market to offload all inventory.


Thanks for your insights! I hope this thread doesn’t bring everyone down, I think there is already enough pessimism going around…

it’s going to be great to watch… “Drain the Swamp”

Yes, this is not meant as a beat down on guys who are already beat down, more of information to help guys make decisions (mostly if you sit on inventory - it will be to your detriment)


The folks that have large quantities of biomass stored frozen are probably going to hurt badly.


I think we are close to the bottom if not there already. With 2019 harvest beginning to rot or be processed, input supply is beginning to decrease. Q2 will come and there will be demand for smokable/finished goods with much less supply, bringing the price back up. 7-1100 for Crude, 1500-2K for distillate.

As a processor margins are tight but not unreasonable if you’ve integrated properly.

Or I could be wrong and out of business in the next year. Either way its been a hell of a ride.


I don’t see any rebound this growing season or next, enough oversupply to carry right on through to 2020 harvest. Lots of new growers, new states, to replace those that drop out… It’s an unsustainable market for most extractors, so it cant really go much lower; but I don’t think its going back to $1000+/kilo crude anytime soon if ever.


My prediction is $100-150/kg crude this time next year

Yep a price like that makes sense