The real question is what do those of us who are already balls deep do with this information?
I suspect like most rushes, some people will get rich and some people will get ripped off, but the margins some saw last year definitely won’t be the same this coming harvest. Which will be rough on the people going all in on the assumption that they can make the same kind of money. I genuinely feel bad for some of the farmers who don’t have any cannabis experience, thinking they’re going to have a couple acres of grade AAA smokable that they can sell for huge $/lb prices, who don’t have the experience to keep their crop all female and avoid the seeds, and the lower commodity prices and yields that brings.
In the long run I think those of who are keeping eyes on margins and efficiencies will do alright, it looks like the market is already correcting prices from “pie in the sky” towards “honest work”
Learn your Upstream -> Midstream -> Downstream process.
You couldn’t pay money for this type of knowledge…thank you for your insight.
Lol at the clowns who gave me shit in January about the price crashing within months, they were so certain that price would hold steady at $6,000 for single kilos that they called me an idiot for even suggesting that the price could tank lol
If biomass prices tank sufficiently, even $1000 kg can be profitable if you are large scale and can sell it all.
The farmers will grow the biomass at whatever price the market sets… I’m wondering about all these 375 to $4.50 contracts per point out there…i don’t know of many 2018 that were honored but people are still thinking these 2019 contracts will be… And if you want an idea Google 2012 cotton contracts default
Example of one deal i heard of
4000+ kg per month for 48 months , @ 4500 per kg for 4+ year contract and the price isolate drops like a rock. As long as price stays above 4500 should be an issue.
I’ve seen a spot buy of 25,000kg @3750 per kg
** above assume 99%+ pest free isolate
There’s no standard that everyone follows, so prices are all over the place and no futures market. If my only futures market is a bogus contract to buy, but I don’t have the right to sell futures to decrease the price then it’s a bad joke supported by large producers.
The defaults are coming, just curious how many
prices will likely fall to a sustainable level. it’s very hard to discern when that may be.
I suspect the market to slowly buildup as most markets do–along with supporting demands.
Just like the Dot com bubble…things will hype then implode, then correct, then buildup.
They have already imploded. Geographically prices are different but they are all falling fast.
I’m already seeing isolate @ $2100/kg and last years low cbd biomass (5-7%) for $5/lb coming out to less than $1/PPP.
I’m thinking isolate prices of $1500-1800/kg are coming in the next 2-3 months with biomass around $1.5/PPP
Some folks i know are able to process biomass to crude (winterized decarbed )
At a unit price(kg) of 130$
15 000 kg a day so if all crashes your estimates are still on the high side
They claime isollate prices can drop till around 800 /kg and still make profit
That’s excellent to hear as cbd isolate makes great d8 and d8 makes great vape cartridge cut.
Win win as far as I’m concerned.
These suckers came into our weed world not knowing that in 2020 they’d be desperately filling our pens.
𝓕𝓸𝓻 .50 𝓪 𝓹𝓮𝓷
The second the Dea/fda near about these conversions. That party is over.
Well guess it s the last few songs before lights go on
I mean seriously everybody is gona isomerize to save there skin even the 70 year old organic farmer in despair
I hope everyone is ready and didn’t just jump in.
We are ready.
Let the games begin.
What about a couple months??
This is only 10.9% cbd that’s water soluble, hence why it’s worth much more.
I was referring to regular 99% CBD Isolate.
Its worth more per gram…but as far as i’m concerned i see a better quality product that is being pushed at super low rates by KG.
We are on the same page. Im just crazy and stupid.